The evolution of the Thanksgiving box office has been tumultuous in the wake of the pandemic, but as 2023 approaches the holiday season, it appears poised for a revitalization. The upcoming releases of major films—including Disney’s much-anticipated “Moana 2,” along with Universal’s “Wicked” and Paramount’s “Gladiator II”—are setting the stage for what analysts predict could be the Thanksgiving weekend’s largest box office since before the pandemic began. This resurgence reflects not just the love of cinema but also the industry’s recovery from unprecedented challenges.
This year’s formidable lineup offers something for everyone, creating a perfect storm for theaters that have longed for crowds. “Moana 2”, set for release on Wednesday, is estimated to generate between $120 million and $150 million over the five-day stretch through Sunday. It is joined by two other blockbuster titles in their second week of screenings—Universal’s “Wicked” and Paramount’s “Gladiator II.” Together, these films are expected to push the overall Thanksgiving box office well beyond the $200 million mark, possibly making it one of the top-grossing Thanksgiving weekends in cinematic history. According to Shawn Robbins, director of analytics at Fandango, this trio of major releases could redefine the holiday’s box office dynamics.
The anticipation surrounding this Thanksgiving period highlights a stark contrast to the lack of significant revenue generation during previous years. Prior to the pandemic, Thanksgiving weekends consistently featured blockbuster releases that captured a sizable audience, yet since 2019, the holiday has not surpassed the $200 million benchmark. Data from Comscore documents that 2018 holds the record with revenues hitting $315 million, thanks to films like “Ralph Breaks the Internet” and “Creed II.”
In addition to analyzing past records, industry analysts acknowledge that harnessing the collective appeal of varied genres is crucial. The success of this Thanksgiving weekend could heavily influence the annual box office outcome, determining whether the year concludes triumphantly or with a sense of defeat. Paul Dergarabedian, a senior media analyst at Comscore, underscores the significance of this holiday period as it can substantially impact the industry’s overall perception of success.
Despite the positive forecast for this Thanksgiving, Disney has struggled to replicate past successes with its animated films over recent holiday seasons. Historically, Disney dominated the Thanksgiving box office with titles like “Moana” and “Frozen II,” both of which opened to impressive figures. However, recent entries such as “Strange World” and “Wish” have significantly underperformed, raising concerns about the studio’s trajectory.
Nevertheless, there is a distinct reason for optimism regarding “Moana 2.” The film arrives a year after the original was hailed as the top-streamed children’s film. The warm reception of “Inside Out 2,” which opened to an impressive $154.2 million and surpassed the billion-dollar mark globally, has renewed faith in Disney’s animated offerings. Audiences are eager to return to theaters, and the successful summer box office has laid a solid foundation for this holiday’s releases.
This Thanksgiving box office may signify more than just a financial success; it symbolizes a broader recovery for the film industry, which has adapted while navigating the turbulent waters of streaming competition and changing consumer behavior. As audiences return to theaters, the adaptation and reinvigoration of cinematic experiences could shape the future landscape of film. The importance of family-friendly releases, especially during holidays, reinforces the tradition of movie-going as an integral part of the Thanksgiving celebration.
As “Moana 2,” “Wicked,” and “Gladiator II” prepare to capture audiences, hopes are high that this Thanksgiving will not only deliver impressive financial results but also signal a renaissance for movie theaters. The film landscape may be shifting, but the enthusiasm of audiences and the desire for shared experiences will continue to play a pivotal role in the industry’s recovery.
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