Iran is set to hold snap elections on June 28, following the sudden death of former President Ibrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. The upcoming vote, however, is far from being free and is unlikely to result in any meaningful change in the country’s political landscape. Experts and analysts argue that the election will occur amidst a backdrop of a struggling Iranian economy, widespread discontent among the population, and a government crackdown on dissent.
The Guardian Council’s Approval
Iran’s ultra-conservative Guardian Council, responsible for vetting candidates, has approved a list of six individuals to run for the presidency. The majority of these candidates are hardliners with staunch anti-Western stances, while only one represents the reformist camp. Notably, all female candidates were disqualified by the Council, showcasing the lack of inclusivity in the electoral process.
A Lack of Genuine Change
Behnam ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, highlights the lack of diversity among approved candidates, with most being hardliners sanctioned by Western governments. He underscores the pivotal role of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, in the election process, stating that continuity rather than change is the primary objective for the regime.
Eroding Public Trust
The upcoming election was viewed by some as an opportunity for the Iranian government to regain public trust and address growing dissatisfaction following previous protests and crackdowns. However, the approved candidate list has dashed hopes for meaningful reform, indicating that hardliners continue to dominate the political landscape.
Looming Boycott and Discontent
Low voter turnout is anticipated once again, as many Iranians express disillusionment with a system they perceive as rigged and unresponsive to their needs amidst economic turmoil. Calls for an “active boycott” of the election highlight the pervasive discontent among segments of the population, questioning the legitimacy of the electoral process.
Iranian administrations have historically attributed the country’s difficulties to external sanctions, deflecting responsibility for internal challenges. The diminishing emphasis on voter turnout as a measure of legitimacy signals a shift in the regime’s priorities, with electoral participation no longer a primary concern for demonstrating public support.
Experts suggest that the government’s curation of the candidate list favors conservative figures, ensuring a predictable election outcome. Despite rhetoric calling for a competitive election, the regime’s manipulation of candidate selection reflects a desire to maintain the status quo and mitigate potential threats to its grip on power.
A Facade of Democracy
While the Iranian populace faces limited options in an electoral landscape dominated by hardliners, the regime continues to project an image of competitive politics. The upcoming election on June 28 may serve as a symbolic exercise rather than a genuine opportunity for transformative change, further entrenching the ruling elite’s hold on power.
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