The recent state elections in two eastern German states have brought attention to the rise of far-right parties, particularly the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is on track to win a state election for the first time. The elections also highlight the potential backlash against Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition, just a year before federal elections.
Far-Right AfD Leading the Polls
The AfD is currently polling at 30% in Thuringia and is in a close race with the conservative parties in Saxony. If the AfD were to win, it would be the first time since World War Two that a far-right party has the most seats in a German state parliament. However, even if the AfD emerges victorious, it is unlikely to form a government as it lacks the necessary majority and other parties are hesitant to collaborate with it.
The rise of the AfD, along with the newly-created Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), presents a challenge in coalition building. Both parties share anti-migration, eurosceptic, and Russia-friendly views, which resonate with many voters in the former Communist-run East. The concerns about a cost of living crisis, the Ukraine war, and immigration have fueled support for these parties.
Recent events, such as a deadly stabbing spree linked to Islamic State in Solingen, have further fueled concerns about immigration and criticism of the government’s handling of the issue. The AfD’s leader in Thuringia, Bjoern Hoecke, has capitalized on these sentiments, criticizing the government for allowing people into the country who do not assimilate.
Challenges for Scholz’s Coalition
The state elections reflect growing discontent with Scholz’s federal coalition, which is seen as ideologically diverse and plagued by infighting. The potential losses for all three parties in the coalition, including the Greens and Free Democrats, could exacerbate tensions and weaken the government’s stability.
The rise of the BSW, a socially conservative and economically left-wing party, poses a threat to Scholz’s Social Democrats and could play a pivotal role in coalition negotiations. The growing support for far-right and populist parties in the East underscores the enduring divide between Eastern and Western Germany, raising questions about unity and political alignment.
As the results of the state elections unfold, the political landscape in Germany is facing a significant shift towards far-right and populist parties. The rise of the AfD and BSW signals a growing discontent with the status quo and a desire for change among voters, paving the way for a potentially tumultuous period in German politics leading up to the federal elections.
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